THE SPLITTING OF A NATION?
As the U.S. Census Bureau releases more information from the 2000 census, some continuations of previous trends are evident while several changing patterns have emerged that certain marketers should be keep a watchful eye on. For the most part, these changing patterns can be broadly grouped into increasing numbers of non-traditional families, the aging population and a more ethnically diverse country.
As with any element of change, new opportunities open up for those marketers who know how to uncover and exploit them. On the flip-side, not becoming aware of and acting on these changes can result in not only lost opportunities, but also a decline in sales of certain product categories and brands.
Although it has been reported that many marketers buy their census information from various demographic research firms, these companies will have to work with limited information for a while and rely on projections until the Census Bureau releases all the data from the 2000 census. The important thing for marketers to keep in mind is that adjustments will have to be made in marketing and advertising plans to take into account these changes.
Some New Definitions of Family
Definitions of family now include classifications almost unheard of a generation or two ago. Although among the almost 105 million households, married-couple families with children under 18 years old still dominate the landscape with 23.6% of all households. Their growth over the past 10 years (5.7%) dwarfs the gains exhibited by the so-called “non-traditional” families. For example, households with someone over 65 years old and living alone increased 10.2% while single-mother homes with children younger than 18 rose 26.9%. But the greatest escalation happened among household with unmarried partners where a whopping 71.8% increase was observed since 1990.
The Old Definition of Family Still Dominates
However, it should be noted that if a household does include children, the chances are pretty high that it will be headed by a married couple. According to the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, the decline in the number of two-parent households seemed to stop in the mid-1990s. Although there was a decrease in the percentage of households with children that were headed by a married couple, there hasn’t been a decrease since then. A family demographer in the Census Bureau’s population division has noted that the trends in single-mother households and in divorce itself have leveled off.
Even in the 1950s, households composed of married couples with children did not account for the majority of family units because as kids grow up, they move out. Moreover, the decline in the percentage of families comprised of married couple with children had already happened by 1990. In the past 10 years, the decrease has been relatively moderate. Additionally, the decline of this type of household, as a percentage of all households, can be attributed to the fact that people are living longer. In addition, not very many children still live with their senior citizen parents.
Households consisting of married couples declined from 55% in 1990 to 52% in the last census. By contrast, households comprised of unmarried persons rose to 5% from 3% in the past 10 years. Because of all these and other changes, marketers face the dilemma of which “family” to show in their advertising.
Household size also decreased over the past 10 years from 2.63 to 2.59. In 1900, it was 4.76 persons per household.
Baby Boomers March On
Since they came onto the scene between 1946 and 1964, and continue through life, Baby Boomers have been successfully followed by a large number of marketers. Today, different marketers have to be aware of Boomers as they grow older in a different way from their parents. Aging is taking on a whole new definition and Baby Boomers are redefining the way people look at it.
As noted in many sources, even today’s 60 and 70 year olds are not like their counterparts of the past. Today’s “Senior Citizens” wear blue jeans, jogging suits and sneakers because they grew up with them. And, as they moved into positions of authority and responsibility in business, they brought “business casual” into the workplace. Moreover, they also grew up with a different mind-set about growing old and certain marketers would do well to recognize this and learn these new needs and wants through conducting consumer research. Some have described this mind-set as “continual youthfulness.”
A lot of marketers who in the past were not able to sell to Boomers are now in the forefront of being able to deliver products and services to these “aging Boomers,” pre-supposing that these unmet needs and wants can be discovered and capitalized on. “Active Lifestyles” is how many demographers describe how Boomers now live their lives. Not only marketers of health care and “healthy” products, but those who sell financial services, housing and leisure-time activities now have a large audience to go after with newly-designed or newly-positioned brands.
Compared to past generations, the implications for marketers can be far-reaching and dramatic. Questions about retirement, semi-retirement and relocation are all issues that certain marketers need to keep abreast of in order to take advantage of the opportunities that may or may not exist for them. Also, many Boomers have accumulated some amount of wealth, and coupled with their new-found leisure time and active lifestyle, represent important target audiences. The importance of Boomers is demonstrated in the fact that they account for approximately 30% of the country’s total population.
Young Adults Decline,” Echo” Boomers Coming Up
Another noteworthy change in population is the decline of young adults in the 20 -34 year old group. Since 1990, this group has gone from 62.2 million down to 58.8 million. This group has always been important to many marketers as brand usage habits are being formed at this particular time in life.
On the flip-side of this is the upcoming group of people called the “Echo Boomers,” who are now in their pre-teen and teen years and are also forming buying habits and brand preferences. These essentially “free-spending” youths represent very viable target audiences for many marketers.
Ethnic Diversity
Immigration continues to play a prominent role in the population make-up of the U.S. In particular, younger Hispanics who tend to be less educated and have large families are becoming a greater force for marketers to deal with. Moreover, Hispanics were reported by the Census Bureau to be, on average, almost 10 years younger than the country’s overall population.
In addition, because the Census Bureau allowed people to report themselves as being multi-racial, marketers will have to do some interpolation if they want to make any comparisons with previous numbers.
In particular, advertising agencies will have to deal with how to portray their client’s product or service when taking a “slice of life” creative approach. What should be the ethnic background of the actors in the commercial or print ad?
The rise in immigrants from places such as Mexico, India, China and the former Soviet Union, along with other demographic changes, has created new opportunities for marketers in and connected with the housing industry. Coupled with the unexpected increase in new household formations in the last 10 years (1.35 million per year), some areas of the country could well experience a housing shortage.
Because of the increase in Hispanic households, A. C. Nielsen has already announced that it will adjust its 2001-2002 sample to include an increased number of them, and reflect the 10% to 13% rise in Hispanic households, as previously reported by the Census Bureau.
In addition, Nielsen is in the process of re-ranking U.S. markets because of population changes. Other syndicated services such as the Audit Bureau of Circulations and Arbitron will be making adjustments in their reports because of the 2000 Census figures.
